Research

Grand Ideas at the Grand Tetons | Weekly Market Commentary | August 25, 2025

As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.

Economy in Uncharted Waters | Weekly Market Commentary | July 28, 2025

Last week, investors were reminded of the persistent impact the pandemic had on many macro models. In particular, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has historically been the Conference Board’s accurate leading indicator of the business cycle, still points to a deep, imminent recession as of last month.